As in previous years, we do our best to provide our predictions on what changes & developments may be on the horizon. We often get asked, “Will I get picked by MPNP?” or “Can you guarantee my application will be accepted?”, or “Can you find a solution for me?”, or “What should I do in this situation?” To such questions, we have to be 100% forthcoming. We do not make decisions for our clients. We do our best with each and every case to provide legal options and help them weigh the pros and cons. We do not, however, have any magical powers to predict what officers at MPNP/IRCC/ CBSA may or may not do. We do not work for the government. We do not give false hope. Our goal is to give our clients the best chance to achieve their future goals. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
2024 Predictions
Before we get to 2025, let’s review our predictions from last year. They were published here and you can go back and see how we did. Our predictions for 2024:
High rate of refusals for Study Permits
Yes, I would say this prediction was correct. During 2024, we did many consultations with international students who were refused and we were able to resolve their issues. There was an increase in these cases from past years.
Increase use of Chinook and AI tools
Yes, this has borne out to be true. During the 2024 CBA Immigration conference in Montreal, Alastair Clarke participated in many discussions on how AI is reshaping our system.
Increase growth in Manitoba
Over 2024, Manitoba has experienced modest growth – not as significant as we expected. We have welcomed many Ukrainians due to the ongoing conflict and they have helped boost the economy.
Chaos in the USA
This prediction has proven to be 100% correct. With the Trump election, we are getting calls from individuals in the USA who are panicking, shocked and desperate to come to Canada. We expect this will continue in 2025.
New Programs for Labour Market Shortages
During the first half of 2024, this prediction was correct; however, during the second half of 2024, many or most of those programs have been cancelled or restricted. I would say this prediction did not turn out to be correct.
More positive decisions at CIL
This one is 100% correct. The team at CIL worked extremely hard and we broke many records. We did the most number of consultations in 2024 than in any previous year. We saw the most number of positive Study Permits and Work Permits. We cannot publish all our cases and we have to respect solicitor-client privilege. We can say that 2024 was a very successful year at our firm.
2025 Predictions
Over the course of 2024, we have seen many changes to Canadian immigration programs. For the most part, programs have been cut and restrictions have been added. In April 2024, Alastair Clarke published an article in Slaw, the online magazine for Canadian law, on changes to Study Permits. We have received a lot of positive feedback from that article and many applicants have benefited from that information.
Recently, IRCC has added limits to the number of temporary residents in Canada. This was a shocking announcement and it is still not clear how the government is going to reduce the numbers to their targets.
1. Quotas across the board
IRCC announced cuts to PR applications and we recently reviewed the IRCC restrictions to temporary residents. We expect additional restrictions in 2025. It is possible the Liberals will implement to the Conservative’s push to restrict the number of refugee claimants in Canada.
2. Change in government
The Liberal government has been in power since 2016. Current sentiment shows a significant loss in the popularity of the current Liberal government. It is likely the Conservatives will take power in 2025 and they will bring significant reform to Canada’s immigration system.
3. Increase in the use of AI
CIL has been posting about AI and ChatGPT since 2023. It seems inevitable the current government or the future government is going to increase funding to AI tools. AI is perceived to be a potential solution to backlogs and other issues in the system. There are at least 10 additional AI projects within IRCC and the DOJ that may be implemented in 2025.
4. Cuts, layoffs and processing delays
The recent Canada Post strike has shown a significant disconnect between government management, government workers and non-government workers. We see an increasing gap between these groups that may lead to more strike action and increasing labour conflict. During 2025, these issues may have a significant negative impact on immigration.
5. Increasing blame towards newcomers and int’l students
During this coming election year, both the Liberal government and other parties are going to seek to put blame on other groups. We predict the most vulnerable groups, including newcomers, international students and temporary foreign workers, may be targeted. This could lead to more restrictions and harsher penalties for violations.
Overall
As you can read above, 2025 may be a rough year for Canadian immigration. The government has announced that it expects 4.9 million temporary students and workers will voluntarily leave in 2025. This is despite previous promises that they could come, study, work and then find a path to permanent resident status. There will be angry and frustrated students and workers. We do not expect these individuals to leave without exploring all their legal options to stay. The team at CIL will continue to work to serve our clients and give them the best chance to achieve their goals.